dlee7674

I have had a hard time keeping up with this blog the past year or so, but that does not mean i haven't kept up with baseball. I have vigoursly been working on my 2012 MLB Prediction and now that they have been completed I will start releasing them division by division in order of weakest to strongest division. So lets start with the division i think to be the weakest; the American League Central.

The AL Central has one dominant team that none of the other teams really come close to in the Detroit Tigers. The Indians are on the rise but i dont see them improving drastically over their 2011 season and the Royals don't have the pitching yet. Its also strange looking at these divison rankings as the two teams that used to be the class of the division are now securly in the bottom 2 slots. Here is a look at my rankings followed by each teams current depth chart and breif analysis of their strengths and weaknesses.

1. DETROIT TIGERS

C- Alex Avila
1B- Miguel Cabrera
2B- Ramon Santiago
SS- Jhonny Peralta
3B- Brandon Inge/Don Kelly
LF- Ryan Raburn
CF- Austin Jackson
RF- Brennan Boesch
DH- Delmon Young

Pitching-

1. Justin Verlander
2. Doug Fister
3. Max Scherzer
4. Rick Porcello
5. Jacob Turner/Andy Oliver

CL- Jose Valverde
SU- Joaquin Benoit
SU- Octavio Dotel

They have the strongest offense and rotation in the division although this is a relatively weak offensive division. The loss of Victor Martinez to injury is going to hurt, but they may be able to find a "servicable" replacement pretty cheap on the free agent market. The Rotation is solid across the board and they have a legitimate Ace but are they willing to role with Turner as their 5th starter or will they add another arm? All in all this is a solid playoff team although i dont think they are a world series contender.

2. CLEVELAND INDIANS

C- Lou Marson/Carlos Santana
1B- Carlos Santana/Matt LaPorta
2B- Jason Kipnis
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera
3B- Jack Hannahan/Lonnie Chisenhall
LF- Michael Brantley
CF- Grady Sizemore
RF- Shin-Soo Choo
DH- Travis Hafner

Pitching-
1. Ubaldo Jimenez
2. Fausta Carmona?
3. Justin Masterson
4. Josh Tomlin
5. Derek Lowe

CL- Chris Perez
SU- Rafael Perez
SU- Tony Sipp

This is definitely a team on the rise. There are some intriguing rising stars in Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and Justin Masterson that will keep this team in the playoff hunt. While there offense is close to the Tigers now with the loss of Victor Martinez, their starting rotation is a notch or two below that of the Tigers, Ubaldo is unpredictable and Fausta Carmona's status (and name) are in question. This is a team that if everything goes right for them could be in a tight race with the Tigers but in all likelyhood are just a .500 team.

3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

C- Salvador Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Johnny Giavotella
SS- Alcides Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Jeff Francoeur
DH- Billy Butler

Pitching-
1. Luke Hochevar
2. Bruce Chen
3. Jonathan Sanchez
4. Felipe Paulino
5. Danny Duffy

CL- Joakim Soria
SU- Jonathan Broxton
SU- Aaron Crow

We have been talking about the Royals farm system for several years now and the those prized prospects are finally starting to emerge. While the pitching prospects struggled last year, the offensive ones have begun to take their spots on the roster. The entire infield is made up of top prospects that all have all-star potential with the exeption of Alcides Escobar (although a gold glove may not be out of the question). As it was this was a very good offense in 2011, and I expect it to continue to improve in 2012 but the pitching staff is where this roster needs improvement. The addition of Sanchez provides depth but they still lack top of the rotation arms. With this pitching staff i doubt they can do better than sub .500 but if some of their prized arms come up and contribute they could be a .500 team. I still think this team is about 2 years away from true contention.

4. MINNESOTA Twins

C- Joe Mauer/Ryan Doumit
1B- Justin Morneau/Ryan Doumit
2B- Alexi Casilla
SS- Jamey Carroll
3B- Danny Valencia
LF- Ben Revere
CF- Denard Span
RF- Josh Willingham
DH- Trevor Plouffe

Pitching-
1. Carl Pavano
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Scott Baker
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis

CL- Matt Capps
SU- Glen Perkins
SU- Alex Burnett

Once the class of the division the Twins now are struggling to get to .500. This is what happens when your top stars become injury prone and you have a poor supporting cast around them. The offense is weak unless Morneau and Mauer can return to MVP form and the pitching staff is mediocre to bad. They lack a top of the rotation starter and the bullpen is a mess as well. I dont think they will finish any lower than fourth but i dont think there is a lot of potential to finish better than that either.

5. CHICAGO White Sox

C- A.J. Pierzynski
1B- Paul Konerko
2B- Gordon Beckham
SS- Alexei Ramirez
3B- Brent Morel
LF- Alejandro De Aza
CF- Alex Rios
RF- Dayan Viciedo
DH- Adam Dunn

Pitching-
1. John Danks
2. Gavin Floyd
3. Phil Humber
4. Chris Sale
5. Jake Peavy

CL- Matt Thorton
SU- Jesse Crain
SU- Will Ohman

Another team that once dominated the division but has fallen on hard times. Unlike the Twins I think there is more room for improvement as the roster is younger and has more upside. That being said they have to prove it first, thats why have put them this low. It's not the roster that has changed but they have changed to a very inexperienced manager which could lead to some issues. The pitching staff is actually decent but the offense is what needs work. 5th place is a starting point for the White Sox but I could see them finishing ahead of the Twins and ahead of the Royals would be a best case scenario.


So there is my 2012 AL Central preview, look out for my next preview later this week.

Two days ago I posted my NL East Trade Deadline Analysis, as I took a look at how the teams in that division either got better or worse. Today we will take a look at the NL Central. There is technically a four team race for the NL Central crown but i feel we can realistically count out the Pirates and Reds as the Reds have been far too inconsistent and the Pirates are starting to putter out. 3 of those for teams made somewhat important moves and one sat quietly. The Cubs and the Astros are looking to rebuild but only one team has committed to a full rebuilding project. So let’s dive right in and analyze these deadline moves by the NL Central.

  Pittsburgh- Acquired 1B- Derrek Lee from Baltimore for 1B- Aaron Baker

                - Acquired OF- Ryan Ludwick from San Diego for A Player to be Named Later

 The Pirates are a fringe contender in the NL Central, they obviously realized this and made moves that improve the club without giving up top prospects. Neither player is going to push the Pirates to the post season but they still may be able to keep them over .500 for the first time in 18 years. Both players will likely only play on the Pirates for this season as they will be free agents next season, but the moves show to the players that Management believes in them. All in all these moves are more for PR rather than actually improving the club, as they are only marginal upgrades but are solid veterans who can boost morale.

  Chicago Cubs- Acquired OF- Abner Abreu and P- Carlton Smith from Cleveland for OF- Kosuke Fukudome

  I am a fan of Abner Abreu, and Carlton Smith may be a bullpen contributor in the near future so this is not a bad deal for the Cubs. Fukudome has never lived up to the hype that he received when he signed in 2008, his defense has eroded the past 2 seasons and his offensive numbers have probably been the worst of his career in 2011 so I am amazed the Cubs were able to get anybody interesting. The main complaint about the Cubs deadline is that they didn’t dump more of their overpaid under producing players and commit to a rebuild. Abner Abreu is an intriguing outfielder who has pop and speed with a strong arm in the outfield but lacks plate discipline, so he could be a hit or a miss type player. Carlton Smith is a very average reliever but has made it to AAA so an appearance at the Major League level either this year or next is not out of the question.

  Houston- Acquired P-Jarred Cosart, 1B/OF- Jonathan Singleton, P- Josh Zied from Philadelphia for OF- Hunter Pence

              -Acquired OF- Jordan Schafer, P- Brett Oberholtzer, P- Paul Clemens, P- Juan Abreu from Atlanta for OF- Michael Bourn

  Houston replenished their farm system by dealing their two best hitters, but many believe the Astros should have held out for more talented players. Cozart immediately becomes the Astros top pitching prospect, he is still a while away from the big leagues but he is above average to good in almost all aspects of his game. Singleton is another young player that is at the low level minors but has tremendous upside. He will hit for good average and power and has good plate discipline, and he instantly becomes the Astros top hitting prospect in my mind. Josh Zeid is a mediocre pitching prospect who is at the AA level but has struggled this year, if he makes the big leagues he will likely be a middle reliever. The return for Michael Bourn was a lot less exciting, especially if you look at the prospects Atlanta has. Jordan Schafer is the replacement for Bourn in center and he could be a serviceable one. He has great speed with some power, but lacks the ability to make consistent contact. He is still young and has room to improve so Schafer still has the potential to be a star but more likely he will be a solid major league starter. Brett Oberholtzer is a solid lefty pitching prospect with good command and good homerun suppression ability, just not a huge strikeout pitcher, but he will get his fair share. I am actually a fan of Oberholtzer and I think that he could be a solid middle of the rotation guy down the road. Paul Clemens is another decent prospect, but while his numbers look ok AA this year I’m just not a huge fan. He has decent strikeout ability but not as good of command as Oberholtzer or as good of a homerun suppression rate. He could be a back of the rotation starter or reliever down the road. Juan Abreu is one of those middle relievers who has great strikeout ability but lacks good command to be a starter. He has played well at AAA in 2011 so I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays an important role in the Astros 2012 bullpen. Overall they Astros have gotten some nice prospects but they should have been able to get better ones for the players they gave up.

 St. Louis- Acquired P- Edwin Jackson, OF- Corey Patterson, P- Marc Rzepcynski, P- Octavio Dotel from Chicago White Sox and Toronto     for OF- Colby Rasmus, P- Trever Miller, P- Brian Tallet, P- P.J. Walters

               Acquired SS- Rafael Furcal from Los Angeles Dodgers for OF- Alex Castellanos

 I think the Cardinals made the most surprising moves near the deadline. I had heard rumors that Rasmus was going to get shipped out of St. Louis but then they were always quickly denied. The Cardinals gave up on a very talented CF but acquired a well traveled but effective starter who should help them make a post-season push. The rest of the players are pretty good as well, Corey Patterson can still be a solid 4th outfielder and Rzepcynski and Dotel should both be solid middle relievers for the Cardnials. I was not crazy about the Rafael Furcal trade, he really has been bad this year, but the benefit is having another veteran starter for the stretch run i guess. The problem is his bat has been abysmal, he is injury prone and he is only playing average defense at best this year. All in all the Cardinals did make a big splash bringing in (can i call him a journey man at 27?) Edwin Jackson along with some smaller pieces and it should be a close battle for the NL Central crown.

 Cincinnati- Acquired OF- Bill Rhinehart and P- Chris Manno from the Nationals for OF- Jonny Gomes

 This trade really has no impact on the season or down the road besides the fact the Reds were smart enough to get rid of Gomes. Rhinehart seems like he will be a Quad A type player or at best a 4^th outfield type. Manno is a young reliever sitting at High A who has good strikeout ability but is mediocre besides that. He is too young right now for me to make a prediction of what he might do at the majors because he could still not make it. Surprisingly the Reds got something for Gomes but again this trade really does nothing for the Reds.

 

Overall Summary- If you noticed I did not include the Francisco Rodriguez trade because it did not happen as close to the deadline. The Cardinals and Astros made the biggest moves of the deadline, but for very different reasons and the Pirates made 2 smaller moves. The Cubs and Reds did the least and both needed to do more. Overall I think the Cardinals are the winners of the Central at the deadline but I’m not sure they have enough to beat the Brewers for the division.

It has been a a few days now since the trade deadline ended so I thought it was time for me to put in my two cents. I was very surprised at the amount of activity that occured before the deadline, especially in terms of younger and more long term type players being traded. So what i wanted to do today was take a look at some of the more important deals and break them down and see who won and lost. So lets dive right in and look at NL East moves.

 

NL EAST

 

Philadelphia- Acquired OF- Hunter Pence from the Astros for P-Jarred Cozart, P-Josh Zied, 1B/OF- Jonathan Singleton

 

This was one of the biggest deals of the year. Houston is finally admitting defeat and going for a full on rebuilding project which likely means the end of the Ed Wade era. But we will take a better look at the prospects involved when we get to the NL Central. For right now we are just looking at what the Phillies are getting with Hunter Pence. The truth is Hunter Pence is not a star outfielder, he hits for a nice average although he has not been a .300 hitter till this year, he has average power and speed to go along with roughly average to above average defense. So all in all he is a good major league outfielder but is by no means a franchise player. I think Philly is a good fit for him because in Houston he was having to be the Franchise player, when he really was not one. So with Pence the Phillies added a player who has been worth 2.6 WAR this season and is typically a 3-4 WAR player a season and is entering his prime years. All in all this is a solid trade for the Phillies, especially since they didnt give up Domonic Brown.

 

New York Mets- Acquried P- Zack Wheeler from the Giants for OF- Carlos Beltran

 

The Mets gave up their best player this season for a young and intriguing pitching prospect. The Mets sold high on an older, injury risk type player and actually got a good prospect out of it, so you have to give the Mets props for that. Wheeler is 21 year old starting pitching prospect who is currently at High A. He has great strikeout stuff but also struggles with his command (98 K's and 48 BB in 88 IP). I think he immediatly moves into the Mets top 5 prospects and while he may be a few years away, has a good chance to be a great pitcher for the Mets.

 

Atlanta- Acquired OF- Michael Bourn from the Astros for OF- Jordan Schafer, P- Brett Oberholtzer, P- Paul Clemens, P- Juan Abreu

 

This is easliy a win for the Braves, as they were able to acquire one of the best available outfielders without giving up any of their top pitching prospects. The Braves are getting a plus defender with game changing speed and a solid contact hitter. I was just amazed that the Braves were able to acquire him so easily, because if I were the Astros i would have demanded either Teharan, Minor, Delgado or Vizcaino, Instead the best player they had to give up was Jordan Schafer who has no place on the team now anyways. All in all this is a really good deal for the Braves and they will add Bourn and his 3-4 WAR a season with pleasure.

 

Washington- Acquired OF- Jonny Gomes from the Reds for OF- Bill Rhinehart and P- Chris Manno

                   Acquired OF- Erik Komatsu from the Brewers for INF- Jerry Hairston Jr.

                   Acquired SS- Zach Walters from the Diamondbacks for P- Jason Marquis

 

Several small moves by the Nationals, none of which will greatly impact the 2011 season. They acquire Jonny Gomes mostly for the draft compinsation as he should be type B. Komatsu is a solid outfield prospect who can hit for contact and has good patience with average power and above average speed. He seems like he could be a potential 4th outfielder type down the road for the Nationals. Zach Walters is a young shortstop who has solid all around skills but nothing stands out to me. He is a ways from the majors so he could get better or be a bust. The Nationals added some middle level prospects and a guy who will likely net them a draft pick if he declines arbitration, not a great deadline but they continue to build for the future. 

Overall Analysis- The Phillies and Braves both acquired former Astros outfielders that should help them down the stretch and in the future. The Nationals and Mets made moves to help build for the future and the Marlins did nothing. I like all of the moves made in this division, and i think they took advantage of some of their trade partners.

I have finished my 3rd entry in the top 20 by position series and today we will take a look at shortstop. This position was almost as challenging as Catcher, as the divisions in talent are not as clear. Again remember these rankings are based on current, past and future production not the current season alone. Also remember that the specific rankings are not as important as getting the players in the correct tiers, so many players are interchangable at specific rankings within a tier. Now lets dive right into the Shortstop rankings.

Tier 1- These guys are truly the elite players at their position and are MVP candidates year in and year out.

1. Troy Tulowitzki (COL)- Clearly the best all around shortsop in the game, provides average, power, speed and superb defense and always an MVP candidate.

2. Jose Reyes (NYM)- An excellent hitter who provides a lethal combo of average and speed with some power. The reason he is 2nd is only because his defense just does not matchup to Tulowitzki's.

3. Hanley Ramirez (FLA)- He may be having a down year and people may question his motivation but when he is on he is one of the best ballplayers in the game. He provides a great combo of power and speed and can easily hit over .300 but lacks good defensive play.

Tier 2- These guys are some of the best shortstops in the game today and are good ballplayers. But they are not the superstars like the guys in the top tier.

4. Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)- Has really put it all together in a breakout campaign in 2011. He hits for a solid average, has good pop and speed. He is also just 25 so the sky is the limit for Cabrera.

5. J.J. Hardy (BAL)- While he may not have the speed of the guys above him, he may be one of the better hitters of the bunch. He hits for a solid average with good power and is a good defender. He is just entering his prime years so there is several more years of excellent production ahead.

6. Yunel Escobar (TOR)- Being traded Toronto seems to have been a good thing for Escobar as he has become better than ever. He can hit for a good average with solid power and is a solid defender. He is yet another player entering his prime years so there are several seasons of good production ahead.

7. Jhonny Peralta (DET)- Very similar to Hardy and Escobar in terms of production, provides a good average with good power and solid defense.

8. Elvis Andrus (TEX)- Only 22 years old and already one of the best in the game. He provides solid average with blazing speed and great defense.

9. Starlin Castro (CHC)- At 21 years old and his potential he should eventually be a top tier guy. But already he easily is in the top 15 among shortstops. He provides a great average with good speed and power potential (doubles and triples that could turn into homeruns) but his defense is very raw which holds him back.

10. Alexei Ramirez (CHW)- An all around solid talent but is not outstanding in any one category. He is in his prime years so we should se several more good seasons out of him.

11. Jimmy Rollins (PHI)- Age has regressed his talents somewhat but he is still easily in the second tier in terms of talent. He provides a decent average with a solid power, speed combination and good defense.

12. Erick Aybar (LAA)- He seems to be on the way up and is now in his prime years. He hits for a solid average, has good speed and average power along with average defense.

13. Stephen Drew (ARI)- He's regressed some from last year but he is still in his prime years. He can put up a solid average with decent power and a little speed to go along with above average to good defense.

Tier 3- There were only 2 guys that i thought fit into this teir. Both are young guys who were top prospects and are on the rise. They still have a lot of work to do but have potential to move up into the next tier soon.

14. Alcides Escobar (KCR)- His offense has been a liability for most of the season although he has started to hit better as of late but his defense is phenominal. He is an average contact hitter with virtualy no power but good speed. But as I said his defense is where his value lies, i would not be surprised to see him win some gold gloves in the future.

15. Ian Desmond (WAS)- He has taken a major step back on the offensive side but has improved his defense in his sophmore campaign. He should be able to provide a decent batting average with above average power and good speed to go along with his average defense. 

Tier 4- These are the old guys who may have once been higher on the list but due to age and declining production have been knocked to the last tier.

16. Clint Barmes (HOU)- In terms of onfield production he is much better than the guys in this tier. But he is reaching the end of his prime years and his history is somewhat eratic. But he has provided good defense to compliment league average hitting with little basestealing ability.

17. Brendan Ryan (SEA)- His value lies in his defense where he can be a great defender. But his hitting leaves something to be desired with average hitting with no power and average basestealing ability.

18. Derek Jeter (NYY)- He may have gotten his 3,000th hit this season but he is clearly at the tail end of his career. He is now an average hitter in terms of both power and contact but still provides decent basestealing ability. The defense is pretty average as well and with little upside he has nowhere to go but down.

19. Marco Scutaro (BOS)- Another example of an old guy with little left in his bat. He can still hit for a respectable average with some power but virtualy no basestealing ability and his defense has been ok this year, but his career numbers have been eratic.

20. Jamey Carrol (LAD)- As usual there were a number of candidates that could fit in this spot. I decided to go with the most valuable in terms of WAR. He has no upside as he is already 37 years old but he has performed consistently over the past few seasons that he may still put up solid numbers for a few more years.

Summary- There are only a few Superstars at shortstop right now, but the second tier is filled with a lot of very talented players that standout because of the position they play. Look for guys such as Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar and Ian Desmond to rise to the upper tiers of the position.

I have finally finished the second entry in my Top 20 Players by Position series. Today we will take a look at second base. This list was much easier to develop in comparison to the Catcher list. I think that is partly due to it being the second list so i have a better feel for what i want to do with it, but also because i think there is a much more defined crop of players at second base. Remember the players are not ranked only on their current performance but on past and future performance as well. So lets dive right into the top 20 Second Basemen.

Tier 1- These are the superstars at the position, who generally are good in almost every aspect of the game and can stack up against the best at any position.


1. Dustin Pedroia (BOS)- Clearly the top choice as he does everything, hit for average, some power, has good speed and plays good defense. Has contributed to winning a world series and winning an MVP also help him rank as the top at his position.

2. Ian Kinsler (TEX)- Has turned into a multi category stud as he provides excellent power, speed and defense. He is still in his prime so there are likely several more years of solid production ahead.

3. Rickie Weeks (MIL)- It took him a little while to get his career going but now he has figured it out and turned into one of the best in the game. He provides excellent power, has decent speed and has turned into an above average defender on a good team.

4. Robinson Cano (NYY)- Cano gets in this tier on his hitting prowess alone, he may be the best hitter in this tier and is just now in his prime years. But he cannot rank at the top of the tier because he lacks the speed and defensive ability of the guys above him on the list.

5. Chase Utley (PHI)- He gets one here based on his past performance and the hope that he can put a couple more healthy seasons together. Because when healthy he can be one of the best in the game providing power, contact, speed and defense.

6. Ben Zobrist (TB)- While he may not hit for as high of an average as the guys above him he provides solid power and speed to compliment excellent defense and versatility.


Tier 2- With the exception of Brandon Phillips everyone in this tier is on the way up. These are guys who are missing a thing or two from their game that keeps them from being one of the elite players in the league.


7. Howie Kendrick (LAA)- While his numbers this season matchup with those in the top tier his career numbers dont matchup with the guys above him. He may be in the top tier next year if he keeps up this pace of solid average, power, speed and great defense.

8. Brandon Phillips (CIN)- He still provides excellent defense but his offensive numbers are on the decline. He is no longer a 30-30 threat but he can still hit for a nice average and provide a 15-15 season with outstanding defense.

9. Danny Espinosa (WAS)- If he continues his pace he will win Rookie of the year and has helped lead the Nationals to a respectable record thus far. While his average is not great, its skewed by a rough start of the season and he provides excellent power and speed with plus defense.

10. Neil Walker (PIT)- One of the contributers to the turn around in Pittsburgh, he provides a solid average and power with some speed. At age 25 he still has room for growth and could move his way up the list.


Tier 3-This tier contains 3 young guys who have been considered top prospects that are now producing at the major league level along with 2 veterans that have dissapointed thus far.


11. Gordon Beckham (CHW)- Still has the potential to be a star at the age of 24 but has not lived up to it yet. While he may not be the star some thought he would be already he is a solid second baseman. He is mediocre all around with above average defense based on his UZR.

12. Dustin Ackley (SEA) He moved very quickly through the Marniers farm system and has already looked at home at the major league level. He should provide a good average with solid power and some speed to compliment solid defense. His age of 23 leaves plenty of time to improve on his already good production.

13. Kelly Johnson (ARI)- Has regressed from his outstanding 2010 season, but while his average and OBP have dipped he is still providing excellent power and has some speed.

14. Dan Uggla (ATL)- Another all star who has seen his batting average plummet. But he is still providing some pop with a .175 ISO (Isolated Power). I am being extemely generous with this spot based on his performance this season but i have a feeling he can turn it around and when he does he can be one of the best hitting second basemen in the game.

15. Jemile Weeks (OAK)- Another interesting prospect who has made it to the majors and performed very well. While he may provide little to no power he should hit for a good average and provide tremendous speed on the base paths.

Tier 4- These guys may be every day startes but none of them will every be much more than that.

16. Darwin Barney (CHC)- In terms of actual production in 2011, Barney has been one of the best second basemen in the game. But in terms of his skill set he does not matchup with the guys ahead of him. Barney is a grind it out type player who will hit for a good average and play solid defense but he wont hit for much power and wont steal many bases.

17. Mark Ellis (COL)- Ellis looked to be on his way down but after being traded to Colorado has shown some new life. When he is performing he can hit for a solid batting average with decent power and speed and above average defense. But his age and overall declining performance push him to this spot.

18. Alexi Casilla (MIN)- He is a decent young second basemen who's best attribute thus far in terms of production has been stolen bases. He can hit for an OK average and play average defense but provides little power. His age and speed are what push him to this spot.

19. Jeff Keppinger (HOU)- After missing some time due to injury Keppinger has played fairly well. He is already over 30 and will never produce the numbers to get out of this tier but he is a usefull starter.

20. Robert Andino (BAL)- This was the toughest spot to fill, there were a number of guys i could have gone with here but decided to go with the youngest one. Again he is the definition of an average players as are most of the guys at this point on the list.

Summary- The top 3 tiers were the easiest to rate, but when i got to the 4th tier there was a significant dropoff in talent. Again as i said in my last post the specific ranking is not as important as getting the guys in the right tier. Many of the guys within tiers are interchangable at a specific number ranking. Thanks for reading and let me know what you think.

It has been over a month now since my last post, but now i am begining a series of posts that should give you some content to read for a few weeks. PLEASE READ THIS INTRO BEFORE YOU READ THE LIST! I am ranking Players at each position based on Talent and Production, but i am not ranking the players by their 2011 numbers. It is more of an overall evaluation of the players, some will have moved down or up due to current production but Players like Buster Posey will still rank high due to their potential. I also love to read feedback and appreciate any advice you can give on how to improve my rankings. Just a little bit more info on how i do my rankings, i order the players in tiers. So while the specific ranking is important a lot of the players in the same tier are interchangable at the spots within their tier. So lets dive right into my 2011 Catcher Rankings.

Tier 1- The Elite Catchers in the League who can hit just as well as the elite players at other positions.

1. Brian McCann (ATL)- With Injuries to Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, McCann has become the top catcher in the game. He is alone in the top tier of catching because nobody even comes close in terms of consistency, total production and value to their team. McCann is an all around stud at a position that is severly lacking in that category.

Tier 2- The Top catchers who are the best at their position but may not stack up against the elite players at other positions.

2. Buster Posey (SFG)- Despite the injury Posey still has tremendous upside and his offensive production is tremendous at a position that lacks good hitters.

3. Miguel Montero (ARI)- Has provided solid offensive production the past 3 years and is just now in his prime years.

4. Matt Weiters (BAL)- A 25 year old catcher with a ton of upside and already a better hitter than most catchers in the league.

5. Carlos Santana (CLE)- Another 25 year old catcher with tremendous upside and has already put up some good numbers.

6. Alex Avila (DET)- In terms of production this year he could be at #2 but this has been his breakout year so I am just showing some caution. But he is also another young catcher (24) with some upside.

7. Joe Mauer (MIN)- How far the man has fallen, from 2 time MLB THE SHOW coverboy and 2009 AL MVP to hitting under .300 with no homeruns and an injury plagued campaign. He may no longer even play catcher on a consistent basis. But his talent alone keeps him in the 2nd tier, but if he permenantly moves to 1st then he will be off the list next year.

Tier 3- Good Catchers but are usually missing something in their game that prevents them from being at the top at their position.

8. Ramon Hernandez (CIN)- Nice season thus far and a very expierenced veteran who has helped the Reds the past few years.

9. Mike Napoli (TEX)- A solid power hitter who lacks in batting average but his wOBA is in the top 5 among catchers to compliment his tremendous power.

10. Chris Iannetta (COL)- Another guy who can hit for power and has a solid wOBA but does not hit for a good average.

11. Geovany Soto (CHC)- He is having a down year but when he is on, he gets on base and hits for good power.

12. Wilson Ramos (WAS)- Another young catcher (23) with upside who may not be elite in any one category but good in most of them.

13. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)- Yet another young catcher who hits for a nice average but his wOBA and power are mediocre

14. Yadier Molina (STL)- A veteran catcher who hits for solid average but has average to low power and wOBA.

15. Russell Martin (NYY)- Another veteran catcher who should be in the prime of his career who has shown some pop and speed and an average wOBA but has hit for a low average.

16. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS)- Another young player (26) who had mostly dissapointed until this season. The fact that he was a former top prospect and his current production indicates to me that he may have turned a corner so i have put him this high. His average and wOBA are average and he has shown some decent pop.

17. J.P. Arencibia (TOR)- He has shown great power but he has hit for a miniscule .222 average and a .311 wOBA. But he is young (25) and has upside so he could move up this list.

Tier 4- Average players at their position who are everyday starters.

18. Carlos Ruiz (PHI)- On the wrong side of 30 years old and is very average in every category. He has nowhere to go but down.

19. Kurt Suzuki (OAK)- Has the most potential in this tier at age 27 but he plays in a tough hitters park and has suffered a tough offensive season.

20. A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)- Once one of the top catchers is 34 and while he hits for a nice average his wOBA is decent at best and has little power.

Summary- While the position may be starved of truly elite talent, there is a ton of young players on the rise and i would not be surprised to see some of them sneak up into that top tier soon.

So we are quickly approaching the All Star break and i have seen a lot of writers making up their lists of who should be on the teams. So I thought i would make my own list and see how many people make some sort of complaint that their favoriet player should make the cut. i will say that I am a big reader of Fangraphs.com and that my picks are very similar to Dave Cameron's on Fangraphs with the exception of a few players. I am not going by who is winning the votes, only by who I think should be playing. I will list the starters first then the reserves for the NL Rosters today.

Starting Lineup-

C- Brian McCann (ATL)
1B- Joey Votto (CIN)
2B- Rickie Weeks (MIL)
SS- Jose Reyes (NYM)
3B- Placido Polanco (PHI)
OF- Matt Kemp (LAD)
OF- Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
OF- Ryan Braun (MIL)
P- Roy Halladay (PHI)
This is one of the first times that i dont necesserily hate the voting results i have seen thus far. I have the same starters at Catcher, Third and some outfielders. Rickie Weeks is second behind Phillips right now and Votto is second behind Pujols (who i have ommitted from my all star team GASP!), and Reyes is second behind Tulowitzki as well. So most of my lineup is in the top 2 places in the voting so far. I really dont think any of my starter picks are that controversial, i considered starting Ryan Roberts at 3rd but statistically could not justify it. I think where readers may get upset with my picks is for the reserves and pitchers. 

Reserve Pitchers-

SP- Cole Hamels (PHI)
SP- Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP- Shaun Marcum (MIL)
SP- Daniel Hudson (ARI)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP- Jamie Garcia (STL)
SP- Tim Lincecum (SFG)
RP- Jonny Venters (ATL)
RP- Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RP- Joel Hanrahan (PIT)
RP- Fernando Salas (STL)

I almost didn't include Cliff Lee because i wanted to put Tommy Hanson on this list so bad. I know that's where me and Dave Cameron differed on this is that I went with Marcum over Hanson cause they were probably the last 2 starters in on my roster. Also i gave Marcum the edge since i decided to go with both Atlanta releivers Venters and Kimbrel. I almost put Sean Marshall but i did not think the Cubs deserved to have to players on this All Star team and I think there is one player that stands out as the Cubs best this season, also Marshall's past few games have been rough.

Reserve Position Players-

C- Miguel Montero (ARI)
C- Yadier Molina (STL)
1B- Prince Fielder (MIL)
1B- Gaby Sanchez (FLA)
2B- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
SS- Stephen Drew (ARI)
SS- Starlin Castro (CHC)
3B- Ryan Roberts (ARI)
3B- Chase Headley (SDP)
OF- Lance Berkman (STL)
OF- Hunter Pence (HOU)
OF- Matt Holliday (STL)

I think the biggest argument people will have with this lineup is why has Albert Pujols been left off the list, and they would have a somewhat valid argument. The fact is that he has played below the level of the players above him at his position on this list and combined with the requirements of filling the roster i could not find a spot for him. That is not to say he is not an all star caliber player but there were other players i would rather see on this team than him. Like i said my roster is very similar to Dave Cameron's at Fangraphs.com with the exception of Starlin Castro, Shaun Marcum and Craig Kimbrell being on the team and the exclusion of Albert Pujols, Tommy Hanson and Sean Marshall. If you have any feedback i would love to hear it because these are just my opinions and i love to see the other sides of arguments as well.

Chris

If you have ever read my blogs or listened to my podcasts you should know that im a diehard Cubs fan. That's not to say that i only root for the Cubs, i like to consider myself a baseball fan first a Cubs fan second. But usually i tend to talk about the Cubs more than other teams, so at some point you had to assume i would talk about this horrendous Cubs season. I wont be surprised if they lose 100 games this year, the pitching staff has been garbage and the offense has been inconsistent to say the least. So the question is, how can a team with a payroll well over 100 million dollars be this bad? Thats what i wanted to take a look at today.

Before i make any big conclusions about this team i first want to just examine this years team based on production. The Cubs number one enemy has been injuries, starting with the pitching staff. At the outset of the season the rotation looked promising, Ryan Dempster had been a model of consistency, Carlos Zambrano had looked promising at the end of last season and the addition of Matt Garza formed a formidable top 3. The back end of the rotation consisted of Randy Wells who had been dissapointing in 2010 but still servicable and promising young righthander Andrew Cashner. After the first week of the season Wells and Cashner were both on the disabled list and the Cubs were searching desperatly for starting piching help. They decided to get help from the farm using intriguing lefthander James Russell and Casey Coleman who had seen some time at the major league level in 2010. Both players struggled mightly although Coleman did show some flashes. While the back end of the rotation was in shambles Ryan Dempster decided to become one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So the Cubs were only getting production out of Garza and Zambrano. The rotation has started to come together somewhat now as Wells has returned from injury, Dempster has improved and Doug Davis may be the answer as the 5th starter but now Garza has been hurt. If the Cubs can get all of their pitchers healthy we could see the staff at least become servicable.

The offense has been much better than the rotation but still somewhat inconsistent. The top of the order has been a bit of a surprise, Fukudome and Castro have both led off and i like Castro better at the leadoff spot but both have been quite effective. The big surprise has been Darwin Barney who has managed to maintain a .300+ batting average in the 2 hole. While he may not provide much in power he is a nice contact hitter who has far surpased expectations. The 3 hole had been Marlon Byrd's main slot but with his injury Castro has been plugged in there. Castro seems to be struggling a bit in the 3 hole so i think a change needs to be made. Aramis Ramirez has been hitting 4th but has only produced 2 HR and was injured hit in the face by a grounder so he could miss some time. Carlos Pena has hit 5th and after a tough start he has started to produce as expected. The 6th spot has been one of the more productive spots as Alfonso Soriano has been having a very good season although he injured his quade this past week and could be out for a while. We will likely see Blake DeWitt hit here for a while. Now that Geovany Soto is back from the DL we will see him hit in the 7 hole. While he has not hit much yet he should pick it up soon. In the 8 hole we will likely see a combination of Tyler Colvin and Tony Campana playing here. Colvin has done absolutely nothing thus far and Campana is not much of a hitter but has game changing speed. The offense had been hitting pretty well until a recent rash of injuries that are taking hold just as the rotation is starting to come together.

The bullpen seems to have been the strength thus far. Until Carlos Marmols 6 run blown save the other day, he had been one of the better closers in baseball. The duo of Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood in the 7th and 8th innings has been very good, possibly one of the better dous in baseball but like Marmol that have not had a ton of leads to work with. Jeff Samardzija has been a servicable middle reliever this year that has surprised me somewhat. Outside of that the middle releif has been mediocre at best.

The worst aspect of this team next to the rotation has been the defense. The Cubs are second to last in all of baseball in fielding percentage behind only the Astros. Its not that the make errors every night but that when they make one error they tend to make 2 or 3 and sometimes 4 all in one game. The blame gets put a lot on Starlin Castro as he is a very young shortstop and is still prone to mental lapses. It also seems like that the errors will all occur in one play and are questionable calls sometimes. That being said they need to improve in this area greatly and that should get better as the season goes on.

This off-season may be one of the more important ones in the Cubs history. I may be one of the few Cubs fans saying this but we need to avoid going in on Albert Pujols. While he may be one of the greatest hitters of all time, giving him a lot of money on the downside of his career could be a move that could destroy our chances of being competitive for a decade. Of the options available i would rather have a 28 year old Prince Fielder or avoid a big sigining and instead focus on lowering payroll and building a better farm system. Hopefully the Ricketts family will make the right move and remove Jim Hendry and install a much smarter GM who values scouting and player development more and will incorporate statistical analysis much more. If not it could be another 100 years before we win a world series.

So to sum it up like many of the previous seasons, Injuries have destroyed the Cubs chances but this team was not going to win the divison to begin with. The only good thing about being bad is we get a chance to see the farm system in action. Then again the Cubs have a fairly average farm system. If the Cubs finish with 90 or more loses Jim Hendry will likely be done as the Cubs GM. The Cubs need to focus on rebuilding and developing a deep farm system rather than trying to be competitive on a year to year basis. There are promising young players at both the major league level and at the lower levels of the farm system. If they commit to rebuilding by the time the guys at the lower levels of their farm system come up they could be a perenial playoff team. But it will not be an easy task and they really need to get a good general manager. All of their issues aside they did make the right choice in bringing in Mike Quade as manager. He has created a stable clubhouse that when a good team is in place should be able to go deeper into the playoffs. Its going to be a rough season and probably couple of seasons for us Cubs fans but if the organization makes the right moves they could be in much better shape 3-4 years from now.